It’s no secret that I love to analyze Tamiya’s releases and release patterns and speculate what they may mean for the future. I’ve done it HERE, HERE, HERE, and most recently HERE.
There’s a lot to wade through in those links, but the TL;DR version is pretty simple. Going back to 2009 and the Spitfire IXc, Tamiya has established a pattern of releasing a new 1/32 subject in odd-numbered years (Spitfire in 2009, P-51 in 2011, Corsair in 2013, Mossie in 2015), and of debuting those new subjects at the Shizuoka Hobby Show in early/mid May.
By all accounts, we should currently be losing our collective shit over Tamiya’s next 1/32 subject. But we’re not.
Why?
Because it now seems highly unlikely that Tamiya is going to drop a new 1/32 subject at the 2017 Shizuoka Hobby Show.
If the Precedents Hold
All along, I’ve prefaced any and all forward-looking conjecture with the caveat “if the precedents hold”. Tamiya is a very fickle company, and even if a pattern is established, there’s no guarantee it will continue as such. Just look at 1/48 kits. After releasing the Il-2 in 2012, we got nothing for four years, until the one-two punch of the F-14 and Ki-61 last year.
In 2017, it seems, the precedents are not holding.
Sure, the past 1/32 releases have all broken cover at Shizuoka, but they’ve also been known beforehand, usually in mid-April. Maybe it’s a pre-order product page on HLJ. Or a few sprue and test build shots leaked to Hyperscale or some other friendly outlet. Generally by the beginning of May, though, we’ve known what’s coming.
And so far this year, there’s been nothing. Zip. Zilch.
What Does This Mean?
Your guess is as good as mine.
If Tamiya’s breaking precedent, they surely have a reason for doing so. Or they don’t. Who knows?
But here are a few possibilities…
1 – We’re going to be surprised
Tamiya will be releasing a new 1/32 subject and have been keeping it under wraps better than usual. It will be revealed at Shizouka and we just don’t know it yet.
2 – The next 1/32 subject is taking longer than anticipated
Which could point to a more complicated kit. Perhaps the wildcard of a new-tool 1/32 F-14 might be the culprit?
3 – Resources are focused elsewhere
Tamiya dropped two new 1/48 kits on us last year, as well as a slew of armor, cars, and motorcycle things. It’s entirely possible they’re focusing on variant development and this will be a year where we see an F-14D and a Ki-100 or something.
4 – No scale fights
Ever noticed how Tamiya doesn’t release the same subject in different scales at the same time? The 1/48 Il-2 comes out, then a bit later, the 1/72 kit drops. Maybe we’re seeing something of the same here? Which again points to the possibility of a 1/32 F-14.
5 – None of the above
Or…something else. Again…who knows?
Doogs Models 
I am predicting a F-14 which will have the same nostalgia type ,” I wanted it as a kid but could not afford it ” But now I can!!! box art that the fiends put the 1/48 F-14 in. I do not have a 1/48 F-14A yet , but I think I want the box as much as the kit. That might sound silly , but looking up at a Tamiya 1/32 F-14 box in a shop in awe Christmas 1984 when I was ten and knowing I could not have it and I could probably not build it anyway has left a lasting mark.
Predict an F14 or hoping?
I’m just hoping they release something this year. Hopefully not as large as the Mossie, but I’ll buy one or two of whatever they release!
Out of interest, there’s a guy who has been commissioned here in NZ to build a Mustang Hangar diorama. I think he’s building 10 Tamiya 1/12 P51’s for it!
Hears hoping for a 1/32 F-22 or F-35. Since Japan took delivery of their first jet last year, the F-35 would make more sense. Tamiya always has an affection for their own Self Defense Forces and this would fit well.
Tamiya is distributor for Italeri in Japan, so it would be possible to see the Italeri box with additional JASDF stuff. The japanese release of the Italeri F-104 also included a Figure added by Tamiya.
On their website in a blank box next to the Mosquito, it still says `coming soon`!
I was predicting and hoping for a new Tamiya F-14 , Look at the competition , the old Revell and the rivet happy Trumpeter . But what about a 1/32 Mirage F-1? or a British Phantom ? Maybe they will release nothing
I’m still dreaming about a P-47D-20 Razorback!
I saw a post earlier today where someone reported that Tamiya had released the 1/32 F-35 today at the show there. Pictures were pretty good. It’s in the 1/32 through 1/24 Scale Plastic Model Airplanes page on Facebook.
Just saw a couple of comments that say it is a rebox of the Italeri kit. Dang.